Tagged “predictions”

Will GPT improve GDP? Eli suspects probably not. Mentions that computers didn't (or haven't yet), and examples of larger industries that are not likely to be immediately affected; either slow moving regulatory blockers, or stuff like buildings that people are still better at.

macro predictions of major changes to markets

It seems to me that a significant portion of all the money investors made over this period resulted from the tailwind generated by the massive drop in interest rates. I consider it nearly impossible to overstate the influence of declining rates over the last four decades.

People who came into the business world after 2008 – or veteran investors with short memories – might think of today’s interest rates as elevated. But they’re not in the longer sweep of history, meaning there’s no obvious reason why they should be lower.

Interesting prediction, on possibly impacts of bot-bot communication.

In this new world, skill at writing will count for much less, and personal charisma for much more. This is not necessarily a positive development. It will be harder to use writing as a measure of broader skill or intelligence.

Had read many of the ideas before, but the hourglass diagram was a fantastic visualisation of it. Recommends The Precipice.

Biggest risks to continued survival: nuclear war, pandemic, and evil AI.

Alex T on the need for innovation in America

Had kinda sensed this trend, though some wild stats in there. There was also the turn to comfort music early in the pandemic.

old songs now represent 70% of the US music market.

The new music market is actually shrinking. All the growth in the market is coming from old songs.

the 200 most popular tracks now account for less than 5% of total streams. It was twice that rate just three years ago

Never before in history have new tracks attained hit status while generating so little cultural impact.

Have often wondered what the endpoint of this is. Or how much in impacted/unfluenced by sampling.

Paper suggesting that innovation and autocracy can be mutually reinforcing, with data and case studies from China.

Rise of holograms, deepfakes, so more ongoing fame for existing artists. Decline of labels, consolidation of the remaining power/profit in that business to fewer and fewer people.

The “official industry figures” will show that the music business is growing, but these numbers will be highly misleading. A huge portion of “music profits” will actually go to tech companies (Apple, Google, etc.), who have no interest in reinvesting this cash into the music ecosystem. For example, Spotify will take the cash flow generated by music and use it to acquire rights to podcasts, etc.—and, in general, the music culture will be starved of funds because it now must pay the bills for other businesses

Mostly sensible looking predictions, interesting set of topcs: Enterprise software, phone form factor, SF / NYC tech rivalry apparently, Crypto as dissident tech, fall of grad school, biotech bubble, microplastics health fears, campaign growth hacking, and SV startup scam.

Ambitious thing to estimate - I don't even try to predict a week ahead!

Some things to get excited about:

• mRNA tech
• geothermal power
• in-orbit manufacturing of things that cannot exist on Earth(!)