Heretical thoughts on AI
Will GPT improve GDP? Eli suspects probably not. Mentions that computers didn't (or haven't yet), and examples of larger industries that are not likely to be immediately affected; either slow moving regulatory blockers, or stuff like buildings that people are still better at.
On the need for anonymity online
macro predictions of major changes to markets
It seems to me that a significant portion of all the money investors made over this period resulted from the tailwind generated by the massive drop in interest rates. I consider it nearly impossible to overstate the influence of declining rates over the last four decades.
People who came into the business world after 2008 – or veteran investors with short memories – might think of today’s interest rates as elevated. But they’re not in the longer sweep of history, meaning there’s no obvious reason why they should be lower.
Before the flood
The Case for Energy Optimism
Title:Avoiding the Great Filter: A Simulation of Important Factors for Human Survival
Counterarguments to the basic AI risk case
When your bot is better than you
Interesting prediction, on possibly impacts of bot-bot communication.
In this new world, skill at writing will count for much less, and personal charisma for much more. This is not necessarily a positive development. It will be harder to use writing as a measure of broader skill or intelligence.
The Future is Vast: Longtermism’s perspective on humanity’s past, present, and future
Had read many of the ideas before, but the hourglass diagram was a fantastic visualisation of it. Recommends The Precipice.
Biggest risks to continued survival: nuclear war, pandemic, and evil AI.
Steph Smith generation-defining predictions thread
We Have Never Been Here Before
The Abundance Agenda
Alex T on the need for innovation in America
Is Old Music Killing New Music?
Had kinda sensed this trend, though some wild stats in there. There was also the turn to comfort music early in the pandemic.
old songs now represent 70% of the US music market.
The new music market is actually shrinking. All the growth in the market is coming from old songs.
the 200 most popular tracks now account for less than 5% of total streams. It was twice that rate just three years ago
Never before in history have new tracks attained hit status while generating so little cultural impact.
Have often wondered what the endpoint of this is. Or how much in impacted/unfluenced by sampling.
Oh, 2022! - Charlie's Diary
Why longtermism is the world’s most dangerous secular credo
Paper suggesting that innovation and autocracy can be mutually reinforcing, with data and case studies from China.
One-Half of a Manifesto
Browser Bets: @SpaceMog predicts Humans on Mars, Robot Maids, and a new era of Science
12 Predictions for the Future of Music
Rise of holograms, deepfakes, so more ongoing fame for existing artists. Decline of labels, consolidation of the remaining power/profit in that business to fewer and fewer people.
The “official industry figures” will show that the music business is growing, but these numbers will be highly misleading. A huge portion of “music profits” will actually go to tech companies (Apple, Google, etc.), who have no interest in reinvesting this cash into the music ecosystem. For example, Spotify will take the cash flow generated by music and use it to acquire rights to podcasts, etc.—and, in general, the music culture will be starved of funds because it now must pay the bills for other businesses
Ten Predictions for the 2020s
Mostly sensible looking predictions, interesting set of topcs: Enterprise software, phone form factor, SF / NYC tech rivalry apparently, Crypto as dissident tech, fall of grad school, biotech bubble, microplastics health fears, campaign growth hacking, and SV startup scam.
Cryptocurrency Might be a Path to
Twitter thread on MetaKoven
Notes on technology in the 2020s
Ambitious thing to estimate - I don't even try to predict a week ahead!
Some things to get excited about:
- mRNA tech
- geothermal power
- in-orbit manufacturing of things that cannot exist on Earth(!)
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